Harvie, Brooks, Cognetti Lead. This is the PoliticsPA Playbook.
It’s Halloween Week. 2 days remaining to request your mail ballot.
Your Morning Pick Me Up. Paradise By The Dashboard Light. Meat Loaf
PA Weather
Erie | Becoming Sunny, 63 Lewistown | Sunny, 71 Red Lion | Sunny, 67
PA Sports 
Steelers (5-2) | New Orleans 16-10 | Sun vs. Cleveland Eagles (2-4) | Mon vs. Dallas Pitt (5-3) | Miami 23-52 | Sat vs. Georgia Tech
Union (13W, 7D, 11L) | New England 1-2 | Sat at Cincinnati
Sixers (3-1) | Milwaukee 127-116 | Detroit 93-106 | Wed at Indiana
Flyers (2-7-3) | Anaheim 4-5 | Tue vs. Columbus Penguins (5-6-1) | Nashville 3-2 (OT) | Thu vs. Utah
What We’re Listening To. Today, we will pull back the curtain on modern election strategies. On this episode of Voices of Reason, Steve Ulrich speaks with Andrew Arenge, Director of Operations for the Penn Opinion Research and Election Studies Department. Arenge has also been a member of the NBC Election Night team since 2016. They will discuss how campaigns spend money online, how data modelling shapes election reporting, and the realities of polling.
What We’re Hearing. The U.S. Department of Justice alerted the PA Department of State Secretary Al Schmidt that there will be election monitors in four Pennsylvania counties on Nov. 3. According to the DOJ letter to the PA DOS, election monitors will be in Philadelphia, Allegheny, Luzerne and Lehigh counties.
Tips. PoliticsPA is Pennsylvania’s premier source for nonpartisan political news and analysis. Tips or press releases can be sent to steve@politicspa.com.
The PoliticsPA Playbook is compiled by Steve Ulrich. For the web version, click here. Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe here.
Top Story
“A poll is a snapshot in time.
And the latest snapshot from the New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena University provides good news for Democrats.
A survey of 1,607 likely voters across the Commonwealth showed Democrats holding leads in three of the four key congressional races across the state, while the fourth race is a statistical deadlock.” | PoliticsPA
Elsewhere
Can GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a Moderate Who’s Bucked Trump, Keep His Pennsylvania Swing Seat? “In a year when Republican candidates across the country are being weighed down by Trump, Fitzpatrick is facing a stiff challenge from Democrat Bob Harvie in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, and testing whether his personal brand can carry him in a difficult national political environment.” | CNBC
A Tale of 2 Campaigns: How a Pair of PA Republican Incumbents Split on the ‘Trump Effect.’ “While U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Bucks County, is keeping his distance from the president, U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, R-Dauphin County, is all in.” | WHYY
PA-01: Where Fitzpatrick, Harvie Stand on Tax Policies, Affordability, and Jobs. “Bob Harvie opposes both tariffs and the war in Iran, which have contributed to increases in the prices of groceries and gas, while Brian Fitzpatrick has tried to walk a fine line on both issues.” | Spotlight PA
Kelly: Some Concerns About Data Centers, AI ‘Blown Out of Proportion.’ “U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly dismissed growing skepticism among the American public about data centers and artificial intelligence during an Oct. 16 interview, and equated those concerns to how people who relied on the horse and buggy for transportation at the turn of the 20th century initially felt about the emergence of the automobile.” | USA Today Network
Republican Donors Are Biggest Contributors to New Fetterman, Mccormick Committee. “A rare bipartisan joint fundraising committee backed by Pennsylvania Sens. John Fetterman (D) and Dave McCormick (R) drew primarily from Republican donors, a federal filing released last week showed, the latest sign of Fetterman’s growing appeal among some Republicans.” | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
State
“Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is an electoral juggernaut in America’s biggest swing state — and he’s widely seen as a likely contender for president in 2028. But strategists in both parties question how tested he really is.
Shapiro’s success — he’s cruised to victory in multiple statewide races — has come with an asterisk: He hasn’t faced a well-financed opponent in recent contests, leading some political insiders to see him as more of a wildcard than his resume suggests.” | Axios
Elsewhere
Watch the PA-17 Debate: Chris Deluzio vs. Tony Guy. “Democratic Congressman Chris Deluzio and Republican challenger Tony Guy vied for voters’ support during a televised debate on KDKA+ on October 13.” | PoliticsPA
Watch the PA-11 Debate: Lloyd Smucker vs. Nancy Mannion. “The candidates in Pennsylvania’s 11th Congressional District, Republican incumbent Lloyd Smucker and Democratic challenger Nancy Mannion, faced off in a debate, which was organized by the Lancaster Chamber and the York County Economic Alliance.” | PoliticsPA
Why the Midterms Could Be a Defining Moment For Prediction Markets. “America’s political class is hurtling toward an election that some fear could turn into yet another public opinion polling flop. Enter the prediction markets.” | Politico
The Trump Administration Has Signaled Federal Disaster Aid Cuts. Is Pennsylvania Prepared? “FEMA Administrator Cameron Hamilton told state officials Tuesday they should prepare to handle most disasters on their own. Pennsylvania officials are confronting a difficult question: Can the state afford to handle major floods, storms and other emergencies with less federal help?” | PennLive
Around The Commonwealth
“In the battleground state of Pennsylvania, data centers have become a kitchen-table issue.
Neither political party has “really figured out how to respond to the challenge” of rising voter discontent over the issue, according to Matthew Levendusky, a professor of political science and communications. Levendusky expects the pressure to keep building into the 2028 presidential race.” | Daily Pennsylvanian
Elsewhere
Americans for Prosperity Dropped Its Support For Martina White and Other GOP Lawmakers Over Their Prevailing-Wage Vote. “A pro-business policy group that helps turn out Republican voters is dropping its endorsements of State Rep. Martina White of Northeast Philadelphia and three other GOP state House members over their recent support for a labor-friendly bill.” | Philadelphia Inquirer
2026 Election Preview: 46th Senate District. The southwestern corner of the Commonwealth features a close race between Camera Bartolotta and Jodi Borello. | PoliticsPA
Three Local Races to Watch on Election Day in the Pittsburgh Region. “Democrats are on the offensive in Pennsylvania and a handful of local state House seats could change hands this year, but Republicans are hopeful they can engineer at least one comeback.” | Public Source
Central PA Legislative Races Feature Rematches and New Challengers. “Here’s a roundup of races in Central Pa. that voters should keep their eye on.” | PennLive
Editorial
1 Thing
“When fall arrives and leaves start changing color, Mike Valladao, a systems engineer at a cybersecurity company, slips into his alter ego, “Farmer Mike,” also known as the “Picasso of Pumpkin Carvers.”
Farmer Mike has been chiseling whimsical faces and comical creatures into big pumpkins for more than four decades. Wearing his trademark orange overalls and farmer hat, he’s sculpted hundreds of gourds into ghoulish faces, seaside landscapes, witches, dragons and pop culture figures such as Yoda and Charlie Brown.” | AP
Thank you for starting your week with us.
Closing out October in style.
